New home sales area fell by 11% year-on-year in August: the differentiation between core cities and low-level cities has intensified

New home sales area fell by 11% year-on-year in August: the differentiation between core cities and low-level cities has intensified

Recently, real estate market data has once again attracted widespread attention. According to monitoring data from the National Bureau of Statistics and third-party institutions, the national new home sales area fell by 11% year-on-year in August 2023, and the market differentiation trend further intensified. Core cities and low-level cities showed a "ice and fire" pattern. The following is a detailed analysis:

1. Overview of national new home sales data

Judging from the overall national data, the sales area and sales of new homes both declined in August, reflecting that market confidence has not yet fully recovered. It is worth noting that the proportion of sales in first-tier cities has risen against the trend, highlighting the characteristics of structural differentiation.

2. Urban energy level differentiation intensifies

Data shows thatThird- and fourth-tier citiesThe sales area fell by more than 20% year-on-year, and the inventory pressure was significantly higher than that of core cities. Although first-tier cities are also facing a decline, the decline has narrowed significantly, and some hot real estate projects have even experienced "sunshine".

3. Policy effects and market expectations

Since August, many places have introduced real estate stimulus policies:

• First-tier cities relax the standard of "recognizing housing but not loans"
• Second-tier cities lower down payment ratio to 20%
• Third- and fourth-tier cities increase housing subsidies

But from the perspective of policy effectiveness, core cities are more sensitive to policies. Taking Beijing as an example, the transaction volume of new homes in the first week after policy optimization increased by 32% month-on-month, while low-level cities received mediocre responses during the same period.

4. Future trend analysis

Industry experts believe that market differentiation will exist for a long time:

1. Core city: With the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", coupled with favorable policies, trading volume is expected to stabilize and rebound
2. Low-level cities: Affected by population outflow and insufficient industrial support, destocking is still the main task
3. Developer Strategy: Leading real estate companies are accelerating their concentration in first- and second-tier cities, and some real estate companies choose to "for price to volume"

5. Changes in home buyer portraits

The current market is dominated by self-occupied demand, and improvement customers have become the main home buyer. Experts suggest that differentiated policies should be adopted for the energy levels of different cities, and purchase restrictions can be moderately optimized in core cities, and low-level cities need to strengthen industrial supporting facilities to enhance attractiveness.

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